Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 29, 2012
...Sandy moving quickly toward southern New Jersey and
Delaware...
...Landfall expected early this evening accompanied by life-threatening
storm surge and hurricane-force winds...
summary of 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...38.8n 74.4w
about 30 mi...45 km ESE of Cape May New Jersey
about 40 mi...65 km S of Atlantic City New Jersey
maximum sustained winds...90 mph...150 km/h
present movement...WNW or 300 degrees at 28 mph...44 km/h
minimum central pressure...940 mb...27.76 inches
watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...
all tropical storm warnings for eastern North Carolina have
been discontinued.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
there are no coastal tropical cyclone warnings in effect.
However...there are non-tropical high-wind warnings in
effect for portions of the mid-Atlantic and New England states. Please see statements
from local National Weather Service forecast offices.
Hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the coast between Chincoteague Virginia and
Chatham Massachusetts. This includes the tidal Potomac from Cobb Island to
Smith Point...the middle and upper Chesapeake Bay...Delaware Bay...and the
coasts of the northern Delmarva Peninsula...New Jersey...the New York City area...Long
Island...Connecticut...and Rhode Island.
Tropical-storm-force winds are expected north of Chatham to Merrimack
River Massachusetts...the lower Chesapeake Bay...and south of Chincoteague to
extreme northeastern North Carolina.
For storm information
specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Discussion and
48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the center of Hurricane Sandy was
located by an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather
radars to be near latitude 38.8 north...longitude 74.4 west. Sandy is moving
toward the west-northwest near 28 mph...44 km/h. This general motion is
expected to continue through this evening until landfall occurs. On the
forecast track...the center of Sandy is expected to make landfall along or just
south of the southern New Jersey coast within the next few hours.
Maximum sustained
winds are near 90 mph...150 km/h...with higher gusts. Sandy is expected to transition into a
frontal or wintertime low pressure system shortly. Little change in strength is
expected prior to landfall. Sandy is forecast to weaken after landfall.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280
km...from the center...and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485
miles...780 km. Sustained winds to tropical storm force are occurring from
southern New England through Long Island and Long Island Sound...and southward
along the coasts of New Jersey... Delaware...and eastern Virginia...and
including all of the Chesapeake and Delaware bays. Hurricane-force wind gusts
have been reported by ham radio operators across portions of extreme southeastern
Massachusetts and Rhode Island. A ham
radio operator recently reported a sustained wind of 64 mph...103 km/h...with
gust to 86 mph...138 km/h in westerly Rhode Island...and another ham radio
operator reported a wind gust to 76 mph...122 km/h in Barnstable Massachusetts.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from
the hurricane hunter aircraft is 940 mb/27.76 inches.
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical-storm-force winds are already occurring over
portions of the mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina northward to southern
New England. Gale-force winds are expected to continue to spread over other
portions of the mid-Atlantic states over the next couple of hours.
Hurricane-force wind gusts have reached the southern Massachusetts and Rhode
Island. Hurricane-force winds are expected to gradually spread across southern
New England and mid-Atlantic states...from Connecticut southward to New Jersey
and Delaware...including New York City and Long Island.
It is important to
note that winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be
significantly stronger than those near ground level.
Storm surge...the combination of an extremely dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters. The water could reach the following depths above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
NC north of Surf City
including Pamlico/Albemarle sounds...3 to 5 ft se VA and Delmarva including
lower Chesapeake Bay...2 to 4 ft upper and middle Chesapeake Bay...1 to 3 ft Long
Island Sound...Raritan Bay...and New York Harbor...6 to 11 ft elsewhere from
Ocean City MD to the CT/RI border...4 to 8 ft CT/RI border to the South Shore
of Cape Cod including Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay...3 to 6 ft Cape Cod to
the MA/NH border including Cape Cod Bay...2 to 4 ft MA/NH border to the
U.S./Canada border...1 to 3 ft
surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle...and
can vary greatly over short distances. Given the large wind field associated
with Sandy...elevated water levels could span multiple tide cycles resulting in
repeated and extended periods of coastal and Bayside flooding. In addition... elevated waters could occur
far removed from the center of Sandy. Furthermore...these conditions will occur
regardless of whether Sandy is a tropical or Post-tropical cyclone. For information specific to your
area...please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
office.
Rainfall...rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected over far northeastern North Carolina with
isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches
are expected over portions of the mid Atlantic states...including the Delmarva Peninsula...with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 5 inches are possible from the southern tier of New York state northeastward
through New England.
Snowfall..snow accumulations of 2 to 3 feet
are expected in the mountains of West Virginia with locally higher totals today
through Wednesday. Snowfall of 1 to 2 feet is expected in the mountains of southwestern
Virginia to the Kentucky border...with 12 to 18 inches of snow expected in the
mountains near the North Carolina/Tennessee border and in the mountains of
western Maryland.
Surf...dangerous surf conditions will continue from Florida
through New England for the next couple of days.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1100 PM EDT.
Tropical cyclone updates will be issued at 700 and 900 PM
EDT...and
when landfall occurs.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
1 comment:
The Hawspiper blogger has a remarkable perspective on the storm.
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