Ha! Some not-so-deep thoughts re: Ukraine

 I have not commented thus far on Mad Vlad Putins ill-considered, and ill-fated, invasion  of Ukraine.

But this is too good not to share:

Militarily, Ukraine wins by not losing, but Putin loses by not winning. In fact, it's probably too late for Mad Vlad to do anything but try to save face. And even if he declares victory probably the best he can hope for is  nice dacha someplace...

But this video (note the source: Radio Liberty/Radio Free Europe!) definitely supports the contention that Ukraine is wining the propaganda war! Yes, the "Ghost of Kyiv" seems to be an exaggeration, and the whole thing with the Marines telling the Russian navy to pound sand seems to be that, at least, but the stories were wide spread, and nowhere in the propaganda manuals does it say "they have to be true." 

But, Lord, do I want it to be true that Ukrainian Grandmothers are giving Russian soldiers sunflower seeds with instructions to keep them in their pockets, so the flowers will bloom in the Ukrainian soil they are going to die on...

Rumor Control -- Updated

Coronavirus Rumor Control | FEMA.gov

Naturally, there are those who immediately assume (!) that anything put out by FEMA is a lie.

Seriously, if you happen to find the Twitter thread in which FEMA lists these myths, don't read the comments.

I refrained from reading comments to this one:

I hear unfounded rumors about #NationalGuard troops supporting a nationwide quarantine. Let me be clear: There has been no such discussion. ... For news about the great work the Guard IS doing to support the #Covid_19 response, click the link. #COVID19 https://t.co/JZROM4xfF9

— Gen. Joseph Lengyel (@ChiefNGB) March 20, 2020

 

Meanwhile, in Washington State...

We heard reports that a @target in Seattle was selling n95 masks.

My staff and others stepped in.

Those masks are now on their way to the health care workers who desperately need them. https://t.co/7sCM5kqyfs

— Governor Jay Inslee (@GovInslee) March 21, 2020

 

Apparently, government assets are seizing consumer goods from store shelves...

Great job!! Now, PLEASE SET UP SHELTER IN PLACE!!!! People aren’t staying home or practicing social distancing! This is at Rattlesnake Ledge today!! pic.twitter.com/S84ewSOPDn

— Fledra Hamill (@fledra_hamill) March 21, 2020

#ShutItDownJay this is ridiculous and we look like fools. All the deaths will only be made worse by the republican governor we will be stuck with because you won’t act.

— Kevin Tracey (@KP_Tracey) March 21, 2020

And the response is to beg the governor to lock the entire state down.

Look, social distancing and all that is a good idea; as an introvert, it's what I do anyway. But The Roads Must Roll; as a Son of Martha myself, the idea that we should all just hunker down and let everything stop because the grasshoppers have succumbed to hysteria disgusts me.

(OK, too many literary allusions in there, sorry, not sorry.)

And part of why I tweeted

Would I be regarded as exceedingly paranoid if I suggested the reason Democrat governors are rushing to tank the economy is to get @realDonaldTrump?@stevenfhayward

— Drang (@DWDrang) March 21, 2020

Do I really believe that one or more governors, possibly coordinated, decided "I know! I'll ruin the economy in the pretense of preventing the spread of the pandemic! That'll show that Bad Orange Man!"

No. They may think that what they're doing will really help, they may think they have to Do Something and this is all they can come up with, or maybe they think they have to be seen to Do Something, which is, after all, a common motivation for elected or appointed officials to Do Something Counterproductive and/or Stupid...

Although I do not rule out the possibility that the thought occurred to them that the bright side of a crash would be that Presidents are not usually re-elected when the economy turns bad.

UPDATE:  And just like that, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer make the question of "Would Democrats trash the economy to get Trump?" look a little more rational...

"On RUMINT"

Tamara has an excellent post (cross-post, I guess) up titled "On RUMINT".

As a former secret-squirrel type, I cannot recommend this highly enough. 

In the SIGINT world, we used to indicate phrases we weren't sure of in our gist by indicating the validity of a word or phrase by writing "(%A VAL)" or "(%B VAL)" after it.

Most of the rumors I'm hearing these days amount to about a %Q VAL.

No, the Stafford Act does not give the president the authority to declare martial law.

No, the National Guard is not being Federalized and mobilized to enforce lock down nation-wide. 

If you heard it from a friend who heard it from a friend... it's probably BS.

Memorial Day, 2018

Or, Remembrance Day, or Decoration Day, depending on where and when you're from.




I don't now if this story is true -- I certainly never heard it before -- but I usually post a recording of "My Buddy"...

20 years, down the drain

And just like that, my Army career was rendered irrelevant.

Pacific Stars and Stripes: Moon and Kim Discuss Denuclearization at Historic Summit

BBC: North Korea's Kim Jong-un Pledges 'New History' With South Korea

The Times: Koreas Poised For ‘Great Transition in World History’

Voice of America: North, South Korean Leaders Hold Historic Meeting

Moon and Kim
Photo from The Small Wars Journal

Moon and Kim
Photo from The Small Wars Journal

Not really, of course.

Note, by the way, that Kim and Moon did not sign a peace treaty, which some of the reporting implied happened. It sounds like they agreed to look into it later this year.

No, what is so momentous is the fact that the heads of state met: Neither country has heretofore even acknowledged that the other existed legitimately. North Korea has always insisted on meeting with the USA alone, while the USA refuses to meet separately, and officially designates it "north Korea", with a small "n".

As I was explaining to a colleague in The Salt Mines,  I served for 20 years, 3 months, and 3 days, and almost 9 of those years were in the Republic of Korea. I spent a fair amount of time on, or within rifle-shot of, the Demilitarized Zone.

One year I was Watch NCO at Field Station Korea; this was under Bush 41, when Mrs. Drang and I were still newlyweds, and de-nuclearization talks on The Peninsula were proceeding well enough that every installation in the republic of Korea was required to make plans for how to deal with commie inspectors.

At a facility that was a wholly-owned subsidiary, so to speak, of the National Security Agency (which was still commonly referred to as "No Such Agency" at the start of my career) you might assume this resulted in some angst.

You would be correct, but it might surprise you that the Secret Squirrel contingent just read the instructions, and made plans accordingly. (Collection operations would be suspended, equipment turned of, and contents of filing cabinets and the like would be covered with kraft paper. IIRC, things would filed so that the kraft paper could be pulled back to reveal files, but they would be set up in such a manner that nothing could be learned of the contents of files by so doing. They would not have the right to inspect read the files, just do a quick scan with the Mark I Eyeball, and wave a Geiger Counter over it, if they wanted.)

(This was the first use I saw of an Access Card scanner; some genius covered those boxes with kraft paper...)

No, the person who really got all spun up was the NCOIC of the Information Technology Section. (Whatever we called it back on 1990.)

Mind you, that doesn't mean we were all impressed, those of us who had already invested a significant amount of time and effort into the "Korean Mission" fully expected the whole thing to come to naught, which it did.

So.

My standard answer regarding peace on the Korean Peninsula remains "I'll believe it when I see it", but I must admit, for the first time since 1980 I do feel some hope.

Interesting, re: Syria Strikes

The Aviationist » Everything We Know (And No One Has Said So Far) About The First Waves Of Air Strikes On Syria.

Basically, a rundown on the aerial order of battle, assembled from Open Sources (AKA OSINT, Open Source Intelligence.)

Don't read the comments, unless you feel an urge to do verbal battle with Putin's minions.

Also: The Aviationist » Russia Claims 71 Out Of 105 Cruise Missiles Downed In Yesteday’s Air Strikes. None Were Shot Down According to The US.

In which, note the following sentence:

If Syrian air defense units were ineffective in stopping U.S. cruise missiles, and most information now points to that outcome (actually, it looks like the Syrians fired their missiles after the last missile had hit), this represents a significant blow to the Assad regime and to Russia’s ability to assist in an effective air defense in the region.

(Emphasis added.)

This has to be The Onion, right? Right?

Obama's gun control executive order directs Pentagon to make firearms safer, not more lethal - Washington Times

{I}n President Obama’s first foray into small-arms procurement for the armed forces, his Jan. 4 executive order on gun control directs the Pentagon to find ways to make not so much more lethal firearms, but safer ones.

Noting that Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, and John F. Kennedy all expressed personal interest in the Army's issue rifles, Retired Major General Robert Scales told the Washington Times that

“Presidential involvement in small arms has been strategic and game-changing in our history,” said Mr. Scales, a former commandant of the U.S. Army War College. “Obama comes along and tells the Army that, in this administration, money is going into small arms to build — not a deadly weapon, not an effective weapon, not a dominant weapon, not a lifesaving weapon, not a technological cutting-edge weapon — but a weapon that prevents accidental discharge. Give me a break.”

Mr. Obama, who has made reducing gun violence and increasing gun control a top priority, signed a Jan. 4 order that directs the Defense Department, as well as the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security, to “Increase research and development efforts.”

A White House fact sheet states: “The Presidential Memorandum directs the departments to conduct or sponsor research into gun safety technology that would reduce the frequency of accidental discharge or unauthorized use of firearms, and improve the tracing of lost or stolen guns. Within 90 days, these agencies must prepare a report outlining a research-and-development strategy designed to expedite the real-world deployment of such technology for use in practice.”

 Because "smart gun" technology is obviously of primary interest to the war fighters. 

Actually, a smart gun would be great for a solider -- as long as it was used to automatically calculate range, hold-over, cross-winds, maybe selection of proper ammunition...

The Emperor's Speech

So, I looked at the transcript of His Imperial Majesty, Barack Hussein Obama's speech.

For anyone else who couldn't be bothered to tune in his blather -- unless they were waiting to see if he was going to pull a Heidi on Sunday Night Football -- I herewith provide the TL;DR version:

1. We shall continue our current, highly successful strategy in the war on terror.
2. The No Fly List we all hated 10 years ago for it's secretive nature and lack of due process would be just dandy if we added "can't lawfully own a gun" to "can't take a commercial flight."
3. If Congress doesn't act to restrict the right of law-abiding Americans to own certain guns we think are icky then they're a bunch of poopy-heads.

Not to make light of a tense situation, but...

Dear Turkey
Bet you wish you'd let us invade from the ground now, huh?
Sincerely,
US Army


Originally posted elsewhere. Like Tam says, why waste your best material at an away game?

They have to tell them this?

Sheriff tells off-duty deputies to carry firearms, extra ammo | The Seattle Times

“While off-duty I am asking all commissioned personnel to always carry their sidearm, with extra magazines. I know that some of you already do, but many do not. Now is the time! With all that is going in the world, it is more important than ever to have the means to protect your family, the public, and yourself.”

I know that some agencies don't require that officers be armed off-duty -- and a few prohibit it -- but it never occurred to me that the KCSO left it optional.

Related?:

• Gunfire Erupts in Police Operation Near Paris - NBC News
• Map of Terror: Where Will ISIS Strike Next? - NBC News

Excellant review of the Westgate Mall attack

‘Close Your Eyes and Pretend to Be Dead’ | Foreign Policy

Far from a dramatic three-day standoff, the assault on the Westgate Mall lasted only a few hours, almost all of it taking place before Kenyan security forces even entered the building. When they finally did, it was only to shoot at one another before going on an armed looting spree that resulted in the collapse of the rear of the building, destroyed with a rocket-propelled grenade. And there were only four gunmen, all of whom were buried in the rubble, along with much of the forensic evidence.

During the roughly three-and-a-half hours that the killers were loose in the mall, there was virtually no organized government response. But while Kenyan officials prevaricated, an unlikely coalition of licensed civilian gun owners and brave, resourceful individual police officers took it upon themselves to mount a rescue effort. Pieced together over 10 months from more than three dozen interviews with survivors, first responders, security officers, and investigators, the following account brings their story to life for the first time since the horrific terrorist attack occurred exactly two years ago.

An attack on a crowded shopping mall is a nightmare scenario everyone with a piece of the counter-terrorism role, or just an interest in it, has sweated over. It's easy to say it'll go better "here" than it did "there", but however it goes, it's not going to be pretty.

And I am reconsidering the easy way we dismiss so many of the techniques learned in classes like I wrote about in "Urban Defensive Tactics" class, 12/14/14 as being "inappropriate for non-LEOS or military."

Still highly unlikely we'll ever use them. And the conventional wisdom is that, in a case like that, even a trained, armed citizen should hunker down and defend self and other citizens, not go hunting the bad guys, if for no reason than to avoid being confused for a bad guy by the first responders, but...

And another scenario skills learned in classes like the one described in Shooter Self-Care Class @ NRA AM2015 (Update) would be invaluable.

Also, had not heard that al-Shabab had launched another attack in Kenya, in spring of this year, on a University, where they killed even more.

Magical Thinking

Or The Obama Misadministration summed up in one picture:

Stolen from.

"Life In The Caliphate"

As a follow-up to my previous post:
The American Interest has also published Caliphatalism? a look at Life Under the Caliphate.

"What ISIS Really Wants" - The Atlantic

What ISIS Really Wants - The Atlantic


Long article, amazed that it was published by The Atlantic. 

On this day......

...October 7: The Feast of Our Lady of Victory | National Review Online a coalition navy under the leadership of the 24 year old Don Juan of Austria defeated the Turks at the Battle of Lepanto.

Lepanto
G.K.Chesterton, 1915
White founts falling in the Courts of the sun,
     And the Soldan of Byzantium is smiling as they run;
     There is laughter like the fountains in that face of all men feared,
     It stirs the forest darkness, the darkness of his beard;
     It curls the blood-red crescent, the crescent of his lips;
     For the inmost sea of all the earth is shaken with his ships.
     They have dared the white republics up the capes of Italy,
     They have dashed the Adriatic round the Lion of the Sea,
     And the Pope has cast his arms abroad for agony and loss,
     And called the kings of Christendom for swords about the Cross.
     The cold queen of England is looking in the glass;
     The shadow of the Valois is yawning at the Mass;
     From evening isles fantastical rings faint the Spanish gun,
     And the Lord upon the Golden Horn is laughing in the sun.

Quickie Book Review, The Global Crisis

Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century by Parker, Geoffrey (2013)

The subtitle says it all:  This is not just a book about the Thirty Years War or the English Civil Wars,  the Seventeenth Century was a time of upheaval all over and all around the world, not just through civil and religious wars, not just due to conquest and colonization, but also due to natural disaster (plagues, volcanoes, earthquakes) and through global climate change -- global cooling, to be precise.  (This books was the source of my post Ancient Wisdom, Revolting Peasants Edition)

Amazon's Blurb:

Revolutions, droughts, famines, invasions, wars, regicides, government collapses—the calamities of the mid-seventeenth century were unprecedented in both frequency and extent. The effects of what historians call the "General Crisis" extended from England to Japan, from the Russian Empire to sub-Saharan Africa. The Americas, too, did not escape the turbulence of the time.
In this meticulously researched volume, master historian Geoffrey Parker presents the firsthand testimony of men and women who saw and suffered from the sequence of political, economic, and social crises between 1618 to the late 1680s. Parker also deploys the scientific evidence of climate change during this period. His discoveries revise entirely our understanding of the General Crisis: changes in prevailing weather patterns, especially longer winters and cooler and wetter summers, disrupted growing seasons and destroyed harvests. This in turn brought hunger, malnutrition, and disease; and as material conditions worsened, wars, rebellions, and revolutions rocked the world.
Parker's demonstration of the link between climate change, war, and catastrophe 350 years ago stands as an extraordinary historical achievement. And the implications of his study are equally important: are we adequately prepared—or even preparing—for the catastrophes that climate change brings?

This is a pretty thick tome, 697 pages of text, 871 including appendices, bibliography, and index.  I had to extend the loan on it from the library to be able to finish it. It was well worth the time spent.

One thing that was striking to me was that the standard response to crop failures due to wars, rumors of wars, and the Maunder Minimum and it's ensuing Little Ice Age was to raise taxes on everything.  The governments that handled the disruption the best were those that lowered taxes, and offered tax relief and food and other support to communities that had all they could do to survive.

Oddly, to a Westerner's eyes, this means Moghul India and Tokugawa Japan.

A cynic might point out that this actually meant more government control over the ordinary person's life; another sort of cynic would point out that this is a mater of degree, especially when discussing the Tokugawa Shogunate.


Parker does not just rely on documentary evidence -- memoirs, diaries, government records -- but also consults the "natural record", such as ice cores, tree ring counts, and so forth, to include climate evidence in areas where there is no reliable record of events or conditions.

One point that is often brought up is how a reduction of temperature of  just one degree Celsius can shorten the growing season by weeks. Even if weather conditions are perfect for the shortened growing season (and when are they ever?), this shortened season can lead to shortages, if not outright famine.

One of the most valuable aspects of the book, in fact, is that it can also be viewed as a survey of actual global history of the period, covering as it does every continent (albeit there is no documentary record for Australia or Oceania, so the natural records must suffice) and most, if not all, nations. I will say, however, that many of the charts he includes that show things like income, population, or climate, are not necessarily related well to the text.

All in all, this is a valuable book, bringing together both historical and natural records from a variety of sources, and also covering areas that are often ignored as being "outside the scope" of other studies.  As I said, I felt it was well worth the time to read it.