Volcano Preparedness Month

Tomorrow (May 18^th, 2018) marks the 38^th Anniversary of the eruption of Mt. Saint Helens, in WA.

In case you weren't aware, that's kind of a big deal here in the Evergreen State, and in Emergency Preparedness, and in Vulcanology.

Therefore, May is Volcano Preparedness Month here.

(Every month is Volcano Preparedness Month on The Big Island: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory...)

One event commemorating VPM is that a group of scientists with the Cascades Volcano Observatory and the Washington State Emergency Management Division (EMD's Volcano page.) hosted a Reddit Ask me Anything session: We Are U.S. West Coast Volcano Experts. Ask us Anything!

This was fascinating, educational, and  entertaining.

Fun facts:

• Geologists do not use the term "overdue" when discussing the potential of a volcano to erupt. Volcanos do not maintain a schedule.
• The Yellowstone "super-volcano" is unlikely to erupt any time soon, and when it does, it will probably be more like Kilauea than Mount Saint Helens.
• Volcanologists become very territorial about their favorite volcanoes ("My volcano can take your volcano with one magma chamber tied behind it's back!" 
• The greatest danger from Mount Rainier is from lahars, which will strand Mrs Drang, the cats, and I on our own island. (seriously, the 98003 will become cut off from the surrounding terrain, that which isn't submerged...)
• The "'The floor is lava' game" gets very complicated when played by volcanologists.
• A volcano may cause the earth to shake, but earthquakes don't cause volcanoes to erupt. 
• Usually. If the volcano is right on top of a fault, maybe...
• Apparently, the only decent volcano movies are documentaries.  
• No, you can't drive your jeep over lava.
• No, you can't outrun a pyroclastic flow.
• No, you can't drill a hole and "relieve the pressure."
• Not even by detonating a nuke "down there."

For fellow residents of Washington State, the Department of Natural resources maintains an online hazards map: Washington Geologic Information Portal. Plug in an address and see how vulnerable that location is to various hazards from earthquake, volcano, tsunami, etc. (Like I said, fairly safe here in the 98-Double Ought-3, although for some hazards it's relatively safe...)

While researching this, I ran across an old article in The Stranger which may have some currency: Nine Questions for Sandi Doughton, Author of Full-Rip 9.0: The Next Big Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest - Slog - The Stranger.

• Now, if the Cascadia Subduction Zone cuts loose, we may still be on an island here in the 98-Double Ought-3, but I'm not sure it'll help...

More on the Cascadia Fault

Route Fifty - A Pacific Northwest Megaquake Will Test Government Response in Ways Katrina Never Did

While this article covers a lot of familiar ground, it also has some interesting new data, and a somewhat unique perspective.

I linked The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest - The New Yorker when it was published; here is a follow-up: How to Stay Safe When the Big One Comes - The New Yorker. This one explains the dangers in more scientific terms, without  getting so technical that you need a PhD in Geology to explain it.

Also, note this key quote:

“You’re not overdue for an earthquake until you’re three standard deviations beyond the mean”—which, in the case of the full-margin Cascadia earthquake, means eight hundred years from now. (In the case of the “smaller” Cascadia earthquake, the magnitude 8.0 to 8.6 that would affect only the southern part of the zone, we’re currently one standard deviation beyond the mean.) That doesn’t mean that the quake won’t happen tomorrow; it just means we are not “overdue” in any meaningful sense. The odds I cite in the story are correct: there is a thirty-per-cent chance of the M8.0–8.6 Cascadia earthquake and a ten-per-cent chance of the M8.7–9.2 earthquake in the next fifty years.

And here is an OpEd from a recent Seatle Times about those two articles above: When disasters strike, poor, minority communities face greatest risks | The Seattle Times

Author is a social justice warrior scientist who can't help but see natural disasters in terms of people. Which is good. To a point. When you start denying that there is any such thing as a natural disaster, because the natural elements (wind, water, plate tectonics. etc.)  "interact with social environments to produce social outcomes", I think you're missing the point about preparedness.

For example, she bemoans the advice to bolt your home to it's foundation, because poor people live in apartments or rent, or own a home but can barely afford to live in Seattle, let alone make seismic upgrades.

Anyway. Related: Three Years After Japan’s Tsunami - The New Yorker

Speaking of Cascadia...

As I was in a two-month old post, here.

The New Yorker has just published an article about a Cascadia Subduction Zone quake in The Earthquake That Will Devastate Seattle - The New Yorker.

Note that the title of the article on the page is "The Really Big One", not "ZOMG THEY'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!11!"

OTOH, that may be what it takes to get anyone in the Center of the Universe to acknowledge that maybe bad things do happen outside of their little urban paradise. (Note that the author manages to work Hurricane Sandy in, even though it was a minor inconvenience to most denizens of the Eastern Megalopolis.)

Not a lot of science there. Vivid imagery, dumbed down so you can peruse it over your morning bagel or on the subway.

Still, if you need to explain to your family elsewhere why you think it's a good idea to maintain a month's supply of food, water, etc., it's not a bad article.

OTOH, if your family is the type that won't leave you alone until you return to the safety of the New Madrid Seismic Zone, you might want to steer clear...

Dodged a Bullet, and training for interesting times

Amateur Radio club meeting today; this was the annual elections. Managed to not get elected to anything. (Nominations had to be solidified in March, and I successfully argued that I had no guarantee that I'd be able to attend meetings due to impending changes in work schedules...)

Also, the presentation was an informational briefing on the impending Cascadia Rising exercise, scheduled for next summer. The scenario is that a Magnitude 9 earthquake occurs along the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the Pacific Coast, epicenter off Oregon.

Part of the scenario is that pretty much the only means of communication will be radio.

Hope there are enough amateurs...

Document (.pdf) of the scenario is here: Cascadia Subduction Zone Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Functional Exercise 2016 (Document will download!)

Washington RACES page on Cascadia Rising 2016 - WAEmcomm. Has a link to the above document, as well as the presentation we saw this evening.

The exercise will include governmental agencies at all levels, local, county, state and federal, as well as non-governmental agencies; Oregon and British Columbia are also participating.