Convergence

Once again, a post I started and didn't get to...

Last week Cap'n Bob posted Solar Prominence in Stereo, satellite photos (video, actually) of a solar flare from NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft, which occupy (I believe) the L4 and L5 points ahead of and behind Earth in it's orbit. (Not Lagrangian points, as I thought.)

The convergence is this: In the breakroom at work, I picked up a copy of BBC Knowledge* magazine someone had left behind; the cover story was "COSMIC KATRINA!!!!" Well, OK, it didn't have the multiple "bangs", but it was a pretty sensationalist item about the Carrington Event, (still) the greatest solar storm recorded, which lasted from August 28th to September 7th of 1859. From Wikipedia:

The solar storm of 1859, also known as the Solar Superstorm,^[1] or the Carrington Event,^[2] was the most powerful solar storm in recorded history.

From August 28 until September 2, numerous sunspots and solar flares were observed on the sun. Just before noon on September 1, the British astronomer Richard Carrington observed the largest flare,^[3] which caused a massive coronal mass ejection (CME), to travel directly toward Earth, taking 18 hours. This is remarkable because such a journey normally takes 3–4 days. It moved so quickly because an earlier CME had cleared its way.^[4]

From September 1–2, the largest recorded geomagnetic storm occurred, causing the failure of telegraph systems all over Europe and North America.^[5] AurorasCaribbean; also noteworthy were those over the Rocky Mountains that were so bright, the glow awoke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning.^[3] were seen all over the world, most notably over the

Ice cores show evidence that events of similar intensity recur at an average rate of approximately once per 500 years. Since 1859, less severe storms have occurred in 1921 and 1960, when widespread radio disruption was reported.^[3]

The BBC Knowledge article included material from the STEREO project, which is studying the sun to be able to (among other things) identify when a solar flare or other event is about to occur. As it is, we will probably have (at most, according to this article) 90 minutes warning.

The article describes the impact of the 1859 event:

The superstorm... still tops the scale of solar events ever to have affected the Earth. Back in the mid-19th century, the communications technology was the telegraph network, and compasses and canny seamanship handled global navigation. As the storm hit, compasses spun uselessly and the telegraph network went down, swamped with electrical currents produced by aurorae high above that pulsed in the skies as far south as Cuba.

The impact today starts with just about every satellite in the path--meaning, every satellite not hidden in the Earth's shadow--having it's circuits fried. Based on the March 1989 geomagnetic storm, which pretty much knocked the Quebec power grid off-line for nine hours (several days in some locations.)

The bad part is that the Coronal Mass Ejection which caused the storm took place 3.5 days before it hit the Earth; we didn't--and still don't--know how to recognize it in time to prepare. Like I said, it is predicted that we may have 90 minutes warning; enough time to shut down much sensitive equipment, but there will still be issues.

One that springs to mind is, will an aircraft with "fly-by-wire" controls still work? Will installations that are properly shielded to protect against Electromagnetic Pulse survive? (Maybe I should buy that shielding paint for my radio shack after all...) Computers, cell phones, cars, pacemakers... The pace of technological advance has been so extreme in the 20 years since the Quebec event that the mind boggles.

Put that in your September is Preparedness Month pipe and smoke it...

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*A title I tend to scoff at; the first issue I saw had an article on Israel, and included a map which identified Israel's major port as "Halifax"...