Tuesday, January 17, 2012

"Shortrange Forecast Discussion"

Gee, I'm glad I looked at this...
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
330 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

VALID 00Z WED JAN 18 2012 - 00Z FRI JAN 20 2012

...WINTER MAKES IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FEELS THE BRUNT WITH HEAVY SNOW...

AFTER SPRINGLIKE WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

WHILE RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A COMPLEX FORECAST SITUATION IS SETTING UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS INTERACTS WITH THE COLD AIRLODGED OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON.

AS ONE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON INTO INTERIOR OREGON...WHILE WARMER AIR CHANGES THE SNOW TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OREGON ON WEDNESDAY.

SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR SEA LEVEL TODAY BUT WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES RAPIDLY INTO WESTERN OREGON. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE OREGON CASCADES SHOULD SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WHILE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEAST OREGON AND THE CASCADES INTO WESTERN IDAHO. WESTERN WASHINGTON COULD ALSO SEE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE COAST/VALLEYS OF WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OVER THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO IDAHO/MONTANA/WESTERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN UTAH. MORE THAN 10 FEET OF SNOW IS FORECAST NEAR MOUNT RAINIER THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE EAST...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN NORTH OF NEW YORK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASS NORTHEAST OF MAINE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE WHILE SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER FLORIDA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD INTO THURSDAY.

KOCIN
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php
I suppose this explains the panicky Seattle Times headline I posted about before.

Note that the report and graphics posted may be updated by the time you click through.

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